Cheat Sheet: Steelers at Bills

HOW TO WATCH/LISTEN

• TV coverage: Broadcast nationally on the CBS Network (KDKA-TV locally in Pittsburgh).
• Steelers Radio Network - Game coverage begins at 4:30 p.m. ET; Pregame programming begins at 12:30 p.m.; Postgame coverage starts immediately following the game.
• Don't miss a minute of the action... check out all of the ways that you can watch, listen and follow along on gameday. Click here >>>

INJURY UPDATE

The Steelers will travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills at Highmark Stadium.
Check out the most updated Injury Report: Click here >>>

SERIES HISTORY

The Steelers lead this series 17-12. Buffalo won the most recent matchup, 38-3, in Week 5 of the 2022 season. That was Kenny Pickett's first NFL start. The Bills have won three of the most recent four meetings. Before that, Pittsburgh was on a six-game winning streak against the Bills. The Steelers won 10 of 11 (including two in the playoffs) between the 1993 season and 2016. But the era between 1980 and the 1992 season belonged to Buffalo, with the Bills taking seven of eight games during that time. This has been a very streaky series. The Bills and Steelers started playing games in 1970, with the Steelers losing just one of the first six meetings. The last time these franchises met in the playoffs was the 1995 Divisional Round, a Steelers victory. Pittsburgh has a 2-1 edge in postseason matchups. But this is the Steelers' first trip to Buffalo in the postseason.

MATCHUP OVERVIEW

• After winning their final three games, the last two on the road, the Steelers finished the regular season with a 10-7 record, winning five of their eight games away from home. That is the NFL's fifth-best road record in 2023. Over the course of the season, the Steelers were outscored by 20 points. Pittsburgh played eight games against teams in the playoffs and won five of them.
• The Bills were 4-1 against current playoff teams. Buffalo won the AFC East for the fourth-straight season, and this is the fifth year in a row they have been to the playoffs. By beating the Dolphins in the final game of the 2023 NFL season, Buffalo is on a five-game winning streak, ending the season 11-6. Buffalo is 7-2 this season at home. The Bills' plus-140 point differential was the fourth-best in the NFL. All six of the Bills losses came by six or fewer points and their average loss differential of minus-4.3 points is the lowest in the league.
• These are two of the dozen NFL teams to finish the regular season with double digit wins and two of the seven in the AFC. The Bills average point differential at home this year is plus-14.7 compared to plus-2.5 on the road. All four of Josh Allen's playoff wins have come in Buffalo. Mason Rudolph will be making his first playoff start. Over the last 10 postseasons, quarterbacks making their first career post season start against quarterbacks that have started a playoff game are 8-21.
• Pittsburgh's plus-11 turnover differential is better than every team except the Ravens and Giants. The Bills are at plus-2. The Steelers have 27 takeaways compared to 30 by Buffalo. Only the Ravens and Giants have more takeaways than Buffalo. The Bills have 18 interceptions compared to 16 by Pittsburgh. The Bears and 49ers are the only defenses with more interceptions than Buffalo. The Bills' 12 fumble recoveries is also more than all defenses except for four, but Pittsburgh has 11 fumble recoveries.
• The Bills' 28 turnovers is tied for seventh-most in the NFL whereas the Texans are the only team with fewer turnovers than the Steelers (16). Buffalo has thrown 18 interceptions compared to nine by the Steelers. The Bills had their first red zone turnover of the season in the first quarter last week in Miami and Allen threw two first-quarter interceptions in the end zone in that game.
• Buffalo is passing the football on 54.1% of its snaps and Pittsburgh is at 52.7%. That is the 27^th and 28^th lowest, respectively, in the league. But over the past three weeks, Buffalo is at 47.7% (30^th) and Pittsburgh is at 39.8% (32^nd). For the season, no offense throws the ball at a lower clip (47.6%) at home than the Bills and no team throws the ball a lower percentage (47.7%) on the road than the Steelers.
• The Steelers have produced 20 more rushing first downs than their opponents this season, but 33 fewer passing first downs. Pittsburgh's opponents have thrown for 10 more touchdowns than the Steelers this year as well, but the Steelers have seven more rushing scores than they have allowed. Pittsburgh is plus-11 in sack differential.
• The Bills scored 20 more touchdowns than they allowed and had 68 more first downs. Buffalo is also plus-30 in sack differential, best in the NFL. The Bills ran 100 more plays this season than their opponents.
• Buffalo has the NFL's fourth-best time of possession at 31:43, and over the last three games is up to 32:38. After holding the ball for 34:54 last week, Pittsburgh is up to 29:38 for the season, but 33:32 over the last four games. Buffalo ran 29 more plays than the Dolphins last week and possessed the ball for 38:07. At home, the Bills (32:18) are fourth-best in time of possession. However, the Steelers are fifth-best on the road at 31:19. In terms of plays run per game, the Bills are fifth (65.6) and the Steelers are 26^th (60.5). Buffalo's opponents run just 59.7 plays per game. Only two defenses see fewer plays per game than the Bills.
• The Bills score 13.6 first half points per game (seventh-most) compared to 8.8 (27^th) by the Steelers. Buffalo scored 12.7 points (fourth-most) in the second half of games compared to 9.1 (24^th) by the Steelers. In the second half of games, the Steelers give up 7.6 points on average compared to 7.9 by the Bills. That is third- and fifth-best, respectively.
• Per EPA, the Steelers faced the 10^th-most difficult schedule in 2023 and Buffalo faced the 25^th. Pittsburgh was 8-5 against teams that ended up with a winning record. The Bills were 5-2 that finished the season above .500.
• Rudolph is now 8-4-1 as a starter for the Steelers. Rudolph has been on the field for 90 plays this season. In terms of EPA, the leaders among all quarterbacks that have played 90-plus plays are as follows: 1. Brock Purdy (.204), 2. Rudolph (.175), 3. Dak Prescott (.164), 4. Allen (.145).
• Over the past two seasons, the Steelers are 17-4 in games in which they did not throw an interception. In 2023, that record is 9-2.
• The Steelers are also 9-2 in one-score games in 2023. For his career, Mike Tomlin has a .615 winning percentage in such games, best in the NFL.
• This is Tomlin's 11^th trip to the post season in his 17 years as head coach. Tomlin has coached just once out of 275 regular season games in which the Steelers were out of playoff contention.
• The Steelers are 5-0 in the month of January over the past two seasons. However, since 2020, the Bills are 23-5 including the playoffs in the months of December and January.
• Since the NFL went to 14-team playoff format in 2020, there have been six games involving a seven-seed. Not only is the seven-seed 0-6 in those games, but they have lost by an average of 12.2 points per game. Buffalo has won their last three playoff games in the Wild Card round.
• With the win in Baltimore last week, Tomlin broke a tie with Bill Cowher for the most 10-plus win seasons by a Steelers head coach with his 10th such season.

WHEN PITTSBURGH HAS THE BALL

• Pittsburgh' has produced 5.0 yards per play. But the Steelers are up to 6.0 over their most recent three games. Buffalo gave up 5.1 yards per play this season, as well as 5.1 over its past three.
• The Bills are in base defense with four defensive backs on the field just 2.9% of their snaps, the lowest rate in the league. In turn, they employ nickel with five defensive backs at the third-highest rate (80.5%).
• Rudolph averaged 9.7 yards per pass attempt this season compared to 6.4 for Kenny Pickett and 5.9 from Mitch Trubisky.
• The Steelers are averaging 27 points per game over the past three games with Rudolph. They are producing points on 47% of their drives with Rudolph, which is nearly 20% higher than their other games. The Steelers are producing 384.6 yards per game with Rudolph compared to 287.1 before he was inserted as the starter.
• Rudolph has attempted 74 passes this season. Of all passers with at least 74 pass attempts, 52 overall, Rudolph ranks first in completion percentage (74.3%), first in yards per attempt (9.72) and first in quarterback rating (118.0). Only one quarterback has a higher percentage (62%) of their yardage after the catch. His 2.44 seconds average time to throw is quicker than all but seven qualified quarterbacks. 
• Rudolph didn't have a second half incompletion last week and had just two on his 20 total pass attempts in Baltimore.
• George Pickens and Diontae Johnson have accounted for 1,857 (54%) of the Steelers' 3,421 receiving yards and 10 of the Steelers' 13 receiving touchdowns.
• Pickens didn't catch a pass in Baltimore but racked 326 receiving yards over the previous two games. He has four games with 125 or more receiving yards this season, but nine with under 50 receiving yards.
• Johnson finished the regular season with a touchdown catch in four of his final six games. This was Johnson's fifth-straight season with 50 or more receptions.
• The Bills are allowing the third-fewest yards per reception (11.2) to receivers aligned out wide where Pickens and Johnson usually line up.
• Allen Robinson has out-snapped Johnson in three-straight games, and Darnell Washington out-snapped Pat Freiermuth 39 to 38 in Baltimore.
• In terms of yards per route run, Pickens comes in at 2.25, Johnson at 2.04, Calvin Austin at .84 and Robinson at .77.
• Freiermuth has at least three catches in five of his last six games. Buffalo has given up 30-plus receiving yards to individual tight ends in five straight games since their bye.
• Harris and Warren have combined to catch 90 passes for 540 receiving yards. These two accounted for 56% of the Steelers' receptions in Week 18. After not getting targeted for three-straight weeks, Harris received five targets in Baltimore, tying his season high.
• Warren has a 67% route participation over the past four games. He has 21 targets over the stretch. Over the course of the season, Warren has received 28% targets per route run, which is third highest of all running backs with at least 250 snaps. Of all running backs with at least 50 targets, Warren's team target share is the fifth highest in the league and his targets per route run is fourth. His yards per route run is fifth.
• The Bills held Miami to just 167 yards passing last week. Their 6.7 yards per attempt allowed is the eighth-best and their 81.9 passer rating allowed is seventh-best. Buffalo's defense faces the third-lowest average depth of target, and is seeing the lowest percentage (8.7%) of deep passes in the league.
• The Steelers allow 2.1 sacks per game. Only seven offenses are better. But the Bills generate 3.2 sacks per game. Only three defenses are better. Buffalo only registered one sack in Week 18, but only the Ravens, Chiefs and Dolphins had more sacks. Buffalo does have five different defenders with five or more sacks and 16 different players have recorded at least half a sack this season. Leonard Floyd led the Bills with 10.5 sacks, his fourth-straight season with nine or more sacks. Floyd has a sack in his last four home games. The Bills are 26^th in the NFL in blitz rate.
• The Bills have batted down 14 passes this season. Only Kansas City and Pittsburgh have more.
• Cornerback Rasul Douglas has four interceptions since joining the Bills in Week 9 via a trade with Green Bay.
• Since Week 9, the Steelers have averaged 145.2 (5^th most) rushing yards per game and has 13 rushing touchdowns (2^nd) per game.
• Harris and Warren have combined for 404 carries for 1,819 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. No other Steelers ball carrier has more than 57 rushing yards. The Lions are the only other team with two running backs with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards.
• Harris has carried the ball 53 times over the past two games. Of those, 15 were in the second half last week. He has four rushing touchdowns over his past three games and 234 rushing yards over his last two. Harris has started his career with three-straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons, the only Steelers player in history to accomplish that. He also is the only running back to have a three-year streak of 1,000 seasons in the entire NFL. Joe Mixon and Harris are the only two running backs in league with 1,200+ scrimmage yards in each of the last three years.
• Harris' explosive run rate is 10^th best in the NFL. In the Steelers wins this year, Harris averages 4.3 yards per carry with eight rushing touchdowns compared to averaging 3.5 yards per carry and zero rushing touchdowns in their losses. Pittsburgh is 7-0 when Harris scores a touchdown.
• Among running backs with 100-plus carries, Warren's 5.3 yards per rush attempt is only behind Devon Achane and Christian McCaffrey. His explosive-run rate ranks third and Warren's yards after first contact per attempt is second.
• 5.7% of the Steelers rushing attempts have produced gains of 15-plus yards. Only three offenses are better. Only seven offenses generate more yards per carry after first contact than the Steelers.
• Miami averaged 5.4 yards per carry against the Bills last week. Buffalo's 4.6 yards per carry allowed is only better than four teams.
• The Bills defense has been on the field for 1,073 snaps this season. Terrel Bernard leads the way in snaps played at 999, followed by Jordan Poyer at 987 and Taron Johnson at 954. Poyer did miss one game, however. These three along with cornerback Christian Benford played every snap last week in Miami.
• Per EPA, only the Bengals and Colts faced a tougher slate of opposing defenses than Pittsburgh in 2023.

WHEN BUFFALO HAS THE BALL

• Buffalo's offense averages 5.7 yards per play this season, fourth-best in the league. Over the past three games, the Bills offense is at 5.5 yards per play. The Steelers defense gives up 5.4 yards per play.
• Only one offense used a sixth offensive lineman at a higher rate than Buffalo, which used this tactic 10.5% of their snaps.
• Only one defense used its nickel package with five defensive backs on the field at a lower percentage (35.9%) than Pittsburgh. In turn, the Steelers were first in their usage of base (35.5%) with four defensive backs, and second in their usage of dime (23.2%) with six defensive backs.
• When the Bills drop back to pass, per EPA, only San Francisco and Dallas have been more effective.
• Of the 31 quarterbacks with at least 250 pass attempts, Allen is 10^th in completion percentage (66.5%), fourth in passing yards (4306), ninth in yards per attempt (7.44), fifth in touchdown passes (29), seventh in average depth of target (8.7). Only eight qualified passers have a higher average time to throw (2.70). He also has the best pressure to sack rate in the NFL.
• Allen had a career high 18 interceptions and 22 total giveaways this season. Only Sam Howell threw more interceptions. Allen has 41 giveaways and 32 interceptions over the past two seasons, both are most in the NFL. The Bills are 16-0 when Allen doesn't have a giveaway since 2020.
• Allen has thrown three or more touchdowns in three of his past four playoff starts. He became the first player in NFL history with 40-plus touchdowns in four-straight seasons. Allen has accounted for two or more touchdowns in 16-straight games. Allen accounted for 86.3% of the Bills touchdowns in 2023, the highest percentage for any player since 2017.
• Last week, Allen attempted 38 passes. Only eight were incomplete and he finished with 359 passing yards. In Week 18, Khalil Shakir, Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid all had at least six catches and 84 receiving yards.
• Diggs has a yards per route run of 2.06, Shakir comes in at 1.99, Gabe Davis is at 1.5 and Trent Sherfield is at .5.
• Diggs rebounded last week, catching seven passes for 87 yards in Miami. But in seven games before Week 18, he averaged just 4.3 receptions per game for only 37.4 receiving yards. Diggs is one of just four players all time with 100-plus receptions in four-straight seasons after catching 107 passes this season. Diggs has 27 catches for 301 yards in his past three games against the Steelers. Diggs averages just 58.6 receiving yards with no touchdowns over his past five playoff games.
• Joey Porter Jr. averaged .9 yards per coverage snap this season as the nearest defender. That the fourth-lowest of any NFL cornerback with at least 250 coverage snaps.
• Kincaid has a target share of 25% and 22% over the past two games, but since Dawson Knox returned in 14, he has only been on the field 71% of the snaps. Kincaid concluded the season with the second-most receptions and yardage amongst rookie tight ends. His 73 receptions are fourth-most in NFL history for a rookie tight end. Kincaid is gunning for his third-straight game with 80-plus receiving yards.
• During the first four games with Joe Brady as Buffalo's offensive coordinator, James Cook had a 31% targets per route run. However, over the past three games that percentage is down to 13%. With Brady as coordinator, Cook averages 16.7 carries per game, as well as 3.7 targets. 
• Of all running backs with at least 50 targets, Cook's 2.4 average depth of target is the highest in the league. His yards per route run is fourth, and his yards per target is second. Cook's yards per reception ranks first. Only Tampa Bay's Rachaad White has aligned out wide at a higher percentage than Cook, and only seven backs have aligned in the slot a higher percentage. Cook's 1,537 scrimmage yards this season was third among running backs. However, Cook averaged 136.8 scrimmage yards per game between Weeks 10-15, but just 55.3 in Weeks 16-18.
• The Steelers 60.7% completion percentage allowed is the sixth-best in the NFL. The average time to throw against Pittsburgh is 2.53 seconds, only six defenses are less.
• The Bills allow 1.4 sacks per game, the best in the league. At home, that number drops all the way to 1.1 per game, easily the best in the league. Pittsburgh's defense generates 2.8 sacks per game. Only six defenses are better. Pittsburgh's defense has ranked sixth in pressure rate (33.1%) since Week 9. The Steelers blitz at the NFL's fifth-highest rate.
• The Steelers have batted down 15 passes this season. Only Kansas City has more.
• Before his injury, Watt had two sacks in Baltimore, two more quarterback hits and three tackles for loss. He finished the season with 19 sacks, 19 tackles for loss, 36 quarterback hits, an interception, four forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries. He led the NFL in sacks and quarterback hits. Watt became the first player in NFL history to lead the league in sacks three different seasons. He, along with his brother, JJ, are the only two defenders in history to have 19-plus sacks and 8-plus pass defenses in a single season. The Steelers are 1-10 when Watt isn't available.
• Watt is responsible for 40% of the Steelers sacks, though 14 different Steelers registered a sack during the 2023 regular season.
• The only offense that uses play-action at a lower rate than Pittsburgh is the Bills.
• Only six offenses average more rushing yards per game (130.1) than Buffalo and their 4.3 yards per carry is eighth-best. However, only 3.5% of Buffalo's rushing attempts have gained 15-plus yards. Only four offenses are worse. Since the Bills' Week 13 bye, they are averaging 36 carries per game, most in the NFL during that time.
• Pittsburgh has surrendered just nine rushing touchdowns. Only two defenses have allowed fewer. The Steelers allow 2.63 yards after first contact, which is sixth-best in the league.
• Allen finished the season with 13% of the Bills designed rushing attempts-well below his career average of 18%. However, over the past two games, that number shoots up to 30%, as well as a scramble rate of 9%. He has 27 rushing attempts over the past two games. He has eight of the Bills' 13 carries inside the five-yard line over the past four games. Allen also rushed for 67 yards last week. His 15 rushing touchdowns tied an NFL record for quarterbacks. Allen and Derrick Henry are the only players in the league with 6-plus rushing touchdowns in each of the past six seasons.
• Among running backs with 100-plus carries, Cook's 4.73 yards per carry is eighth-best. Cook's 2.35 yards before first contact is the third-highest.
• Last week, Gus Edwards and Melvin Gordon combined to carry the ball 17 times for 66 yards with a long of 29 yards. These two averaged a combined 2.3 yards per carry on their other 16 carries.
• On the second level of the Steelers defense last week, four linebackers played between 13 and 35 snaps.
• In all 17 games this year, Buffalo has started the same five offensive linemen. The combination of Mitch Morse, O'Cyrus Torrence, Connor McGovern, Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins has missed just 109 snaps this entire season.
• The Steelers finished the 2023 season fifth in red zone defense. The Bills finished sixth in red zone offense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

• The Bills had a punt return for a touchdown last week. That was their first special teams return for a touchdown this season.
• The Steelers gross average punt yards of 44 yards is only better than New Orleans. However, Buffalo is only better than four teams in this capacity. The Steelers' 20 punts downed inside the 20-yard line is the sixth most in the league.
• Both of these teams have missed just one extra point all season.

MOST MEMORABLE MOMENT:

Jan. 6, 1995: AFC Divisional Playoff Game: Steelers 40, Bills 21, Three Rivers Stadium

The Steelers jumped all over Buffalo in this game and had a 20-0 lead midway through the second quarter at home. The Steelers defense held Jim Kelly to just 135 passing yards on 29 attempts and Thurman Thomas bottled up with just 46 rushing yards. Kelly was intercepted three times. Pittsburgh was the fresher team after having a bye in the Wild Card round while the Bills hosted and defeated their divisional rival, Miami. The Steelers won another home game, this time against Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game, before advancing to Super Bowl XXX, a game in which they lost by 10 points to the Cowboys. The Bills had a 10-game postseason winning streak before falling to Pittsburgh in this game.

KEY MATCHUPS

Bills QB Josh Allen vs. Steelers LB Elandon Roberts - Roberts came back from injury in a part time role in Baltimore last week. His involvement should grow in this playoff matchup. Roberts' ability to slow Allen as a runner along with James Cook as a runner and receiving option could be instrumental in the outcome of this game. Allen also could target Roberts when in coverage against the Bills tight ends.

Steelers Interior Offensive Line vs. Bills DTs Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones - Buffalo uses a pretty heavy defensive line rotation, but this interior pairing could present problems for Mason Cole, James Daniels and Isaac Seumalo. Jones is a power player that is difficult to move in the run game, while also providing interior push against the pass. Oliver, who keeps getting better, is a different style of player, as he relies on his great get off, quickness and athletic ability to win off the snap.