The NFL Scouting Combine will kick off next week in Indianapolis, Ind., and you'll hear a lot about this player or that player "rising" or falling.
Don't necessarily believe that kind of talk.
Fact of the matter is, the Combine doesn't make or break most of the 319 players who will be in attendance. In the vast majority of cases, the Combine only confirms what teams already knew about the respective players.
So, why have the Combine?
Let's use Steelers wide receiver George Pickens as a prime example.
A year ago at this time, Pickens was largely an unknown going into the draft process. That was largely because he had only appeared in four games in his final season at Georgia making five receptions as he spent most of the year recovering from a torn ACL suffered in the spring.
He did that by running a 4.47-second 40-yard dash and showing off a 33-inch vertical jump and 10-foot, 5-inch standing broad jump in his on-field workout.
Then, there were unfounded reports he had some "off-field" issues.
Not only did Pickens need the Combine to show that he was healing properly, he needed to dispel some of the smoke that was out there about him being tough to deal with.
Pickens took care of the medical issues by submitting to all of the testing the NFL requires of prospects at the Combine. He then showed a few weeks later at his pro day that his surgically repaired knee wasn't an issue.
The character stuff? Well, that's why the meetings that take place at the Combine are so important.
And Pickens passed those tests -- at least for the Steelers, which was all that mattered.
"I sometimes get resistant when I get asked about his maturity and character-related things because oftentimes I believe he got mischaracterized pre-draft," Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said at his season-ending press conference when asked about those issues. "So that's why I'm combative at times and defensive when it comes to him. He's a quality young man. He is. He's professional. He's been really consistent in his work throughout. He loves football. He likes to work. We haven't seen a lot of things that we hear rumors about regarding in terms of him, and that's why we defend him."
Are those kind of things unfair? Sure.
But there's a lot of research that takes place when it comes to selecting a player in the draft. Teams are investing not just a lot of money, but also time and effort developing these players for the future.
Unfortunately, for a player such as Pickens, he then has to deal with the fallout of "rumors."
Often, these kind of rumors are put out there by teams hoping to push a player down the board to a spot where they can select him. Other times, it might be an agent of another player at the same position who is hoping to get his player in a better draft spot.
The good teams, however, do their due diligence and know what's true and what is false.
In many cases, the Combine offers a head coach such as Tomlin or a general manager such as Omar Khan the first opportunity to meet with many of these players for the first time. The scouts have done all of the background work on them. Now, he has to sit down with the head coach and GM to make his case to them, as well.
In the case of Pickens, the Steelers had no issues taking him in the second round. He rewarded that confidence in him by catching 52 passes for 801 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie.
Instances such as Pickens are why the Combine is still important. So many of these young players are coming off injuries or have questions surrounding their status. The Combine offers the 32 NFL teams an opportunity to sift through everything to figure out the truth.
• Last year's Combine was the fastest on record, as the average timed 40-yard dash was 4.71 seconds.
But that's not really a surprise, as the times have continually gotten better over the years. In 2010, the average 40 time at the Combine was 4.81 seconds. So, over the past 10 years, we've seen prospects shave a tenth of a second off their times.
Does that mean these players are that much faster than their peers of a decade ago? Not necessarily.
Training has gotten more complex as more players than ever are working on the drills on which they'll be tested. That means players are better prepared than ever before to run, knowing that there's a lot of money on the line.
• Is faster better?
Not necessarily.
A look at the fastest times in Combine history – at least since they've been tracked electronically starting in 2003 – shows that the majority of the best times haven't panned out in the NFL.
In fact, there have been 17 players since 2003 who have been timed at less than 4.3 seconds. Of those, three came last season in Baylor cornerback Kaylon Barnes and wide receiver Tyquon Thornton and UTSA cornerback Tariq Woolen.
Taking those three out of the equation – since they're so new to the league – of the other 14 players, former Titans, Jets and Cardinals running back Chris Johnson is easily the most decorated of the group. Johnson was first-team All-Pro once and made three Pro Bowls.
The other 13 players who were the fastest, only wide receiver Jerome Mathis was named All-Pro or to a Pro Bowl. And Mathis, who had six career catches, made it in 2005 as a return specialist.
The rest? They were mostly not much more than bit players.
Speed is nice, but it's not the most important thing.
Remember that if you're watching or reading the Combine coverage. The 40 times are fun to talk about, but being the fastest doesn't mean you're the best.
• The web site fivethirtyeight.com put out a list this week ranking NFL wide receivers in terms of their ability to get open, their ability to come down with contested catches and their ability to get run after the catch.
Steelers wide receivers Diontae Johnson and Pickens did quite well.
According to NextGen stats, Johnson led all NFL receivers in the ability to get open by a wide margin over Seattle's Tyler Lockett.
