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5 for Friday: Ward deserves strong HOF consideration

A few weeks from now, the Pro Football Hall of Fame will announce the 15 finalists to be voted on for induction.

Former Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward is a semifinalist for the 8th time, while former Steelers linebacker James Harrison made the cut for the second time.

Both have made it to the final 25. That in itself is quite an honor. But it's well past time Ward made the cut to 15 so he can at least be discussed for potential enshrinement, something he has yet to do.

The way the process works is that players are nominated – and anyone can be nominated – and the list is then trimmed to the 25 semifinalists. From there, the list is trimmed to 15, with those players then presented and discussed by the 50-person Selection Committee the day before the Super Bowl.

That Ward can't even make it to the final 15 is a travesty.

Part of the argument against Ward is that there are too many other wide receivers up for election. And while that's true, Ward is right there among the group of Torry Holt, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne and Andre Johnson, who all also are semifinalists this year. 

Ward's numbers against those players probably hold up better than many think at first glance.

The careers of those players overlap Holt played from 1999 through 2009. Smith played from 2001 through 2016. Wayne played from 2001 through 2014. Johnson played from 2003 through 2016.

So, they all played roughly in the same era.

Throw in others who are already in the Hall of Fame, such as Randy Moss or Terrell Owens, who also did the majority of their work in that time span, and Ward's overall numbers still hold up well.

From 2000 through 2010, Ward led the NFL in receptions with 878 despite being fifth in that time span with 1,360 targets. He also was 4th in that span in touchdowns with 76 and 5th in receiving yards with 10,818.

In terms of DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), an analytical statistic pioneered by FTN Fantasy's Aaron Schatz, Ward stacks up very well against the others in this class in terms. Per Schatz, Ward had five seasons in which he ranked in the top-10 in the NFL in DYAR (2002, 2003, 2005, 2008 and 2009). Two of those seasons came pre-Ben Roethlisberger.

That also is the most of any of the receivers who made it to the semifinals on this year's Hall of Fame list. Wayne, Johnson and Holt, had four such seasons each, while Smith had two.

Ward's 1,000 career receptions still rank 14th on the all-time list. His 12,083 receiving yards are 27th. His 85 receiving touchdowns are tied for 19th.

More telling, he caught more passes in his career than Holt and is just behind Wayne and Johnson. But he has more touchdown catches than all of the other wide receiver semifinalists.

This was despite the fact that in nine of Ward's first 10 seasons in the NFL, the Steelers finished in the top 10 in the NFL in rushing. In only two of those seasons did they finish in the top 10 in passing yards.

From 2000 through 2010, The Steelers' average finish in passing was 17th in the NFL. In that same time span, their average finish in running the ball was 10th. And they finished with top-10 rushing teams seven times during that span.

Ward had 26.5 percent of the Steelers' receptions over that period, 29.8 percent of their receiving yards and 31.7 percent of their touchdown catches. The Steelers advanced to the AFC Championship five times over that period, going to the Super Bowl three times and winning twice.

He did all of that playing the majority of his games outdoors, something this year's other semifinalists, other than Smith, cannot say.

Beyond that, Ward was a football player first, wide receiver second.

He cut his teeth early in his career as a special teams star, and that mentality permeated into his offensive play. He was the gold standard for blocking at the wide receiver position throughout his career. He also had 428 career rushing yards.

Oh, and he was at his best in the playoffs. Ward appeared in 18 career playoff games. In those games, he had 88 receptions for 1,181 yards and 10 touchdowns. That includes his performance in Super Bowl XL in which he was named MVP after a 5-catch, 123-yard performance in which he also caught a touchdown pass and had one rushing attempt for 18 yards.

He's one of just eight wide receivers in NFL history to be named the Super Bowl MVP.

Ward's Hall of Fame Monitor score on Pro Football Reference is 75.17. That's better than seven other wide receivers already enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

Ward absolutely should be in the final 15. His career achievements deserve to be discussed.

It's well past time that happened.

• What a finish NFL fans are in for down the stretch this season.

As things stand heading into Week 15, just two teams are eliminated from playoff contention. Perhaps even more telling is that while the Ravens own the best record in the AFC at 10-3, there are 10 teams within three games of them with four games to play, including six teams with 7-6 records.

Those six teams along with the Browns (8-5) are essentially vying for the three wildcard spots in the AFC playoff field.

The beauty of it – and the NFL couldn't have foreseen this when it made its schedule – is that over the final four games, many of these teams play each other.

The Steelers, who currently have the tiebreakers as the best of the 7-6 teams, have two games remaining against two of the teams that went into this week's games at 7-6, with the Colts this week and the Bengals next.

The Colts, who currently sit in the seventh spot, host the Steelers this week and have a Week 18 game against the Texans still on their schedule.

Not only did the Bengals face NFC playoff contender Minnesota Thursday night, they still have games at Pittsburgh and Kansas City, along with a home finale against the Browns.

And the Bills, who host Dallas this week, still must play in Miami in Week 18.

Of the current AFC wildcard contenders, only Denver, which is currently eighth, doesn't play another AFC wildcard challenger. But the Broncos do have a game this week at NFC North-leading Detroit.

Many of these games will take on a playoff-like atmosphere, with the winners helping their cause and the losers being dealt a serious blow. Nothing is over until you've been completely eliminated, but losses in these games – to other contenders – can seriously hurt a team's chances.

It should make for some interesting games.

• How crazy are things right now? The Bears are 5-4 in their past nine games. They are one game out of a playoff spot in the NFC at 5-8, one game behind 6-7 Green Bay, which currently holds the seventh spot in the standings.

Chicago's record – if the season ended today – would net the Bears the fifth-overall selection in the draft.

The Bears, by the way, also hold the No. 1-overall pick thanks to Carolina trading up last season to select quarterback Bryce Young.

• Safety Miles Killebrew is in his third season with the Steelers. The team's special teams captain has blocked four punts during that period, including two this season.

The four blocked punts are tied for the second-most in the league by any team – let alone a single player – over that period.

Killebrew also is second in the NFL with 11 special teams tackles this season, which is second in the NFL. The leading vote getter in the AFC in the fan vote for special teams representative for the conference at the Pro Bowl, Miami's Duke Riley, isn't even in the top 100 in terms of special teams tackles this season.

That Killebrew is not the leading vote getter for the Pro Bowl for special teams players is silly.

• Expect to see a lot of zone coverage and little blitzing by the Colts on Saturday.

• Dale Lolley is co-host of "SNR Drive" on Steelers Nation Radio. Subscribe to the podcast here: Apple Podcast | iHeart Podcast

They lead the NFL in zone coverage rate, doing so 88.5 percent of the time. They also blitz just 19.2 percent of the time, which ranks 31st in the league.

That could bode well for Steelers wide receiver George Pickens and running back Jaylen Warren.

Warren averages 1.79 yards per route run against zone coverage this season, while Pickens averages 1.72, the best among the Steelers' regular players.

Warren also has caught 84.2 percent of the passes thrown to him against zone coverage, while Pickens has caught 72.3 percent of his targets against zone.

The Colts also allow nearly 5 receptions per game to opposing running backs for 48 yards, on average.

Last week, Indianapolis allowed Cincinnati running backs Joe Mixon and Chase Brown to combine for six receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown on seven targets.

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