Matt's Stats: Week 13 vs. Bills

SERIES HISTORY

The Steelers lead this series 17-13. The Bills have won four of the most recent five meetings, including the postseason. Before that, Pittsburgh was on a six-game winning streak against the Bills and to take it a step further, the Steelers won 10 of 11 (including two in the playoffs) between the 1993 season and 2016. But the era between 1980 and the 1992 season belonged to Buffalo, with the Bills winning seven of eight during that time. This has been a very streaky series. The Bills and Steelers started playing games in 1970 and during the 1970s, Pittsburgh only lost one of six meetings.

MATCHUP OVERVIEW

• After starting the season 4-0, the Bills are 3-4 since. Buffalo is 2-3 on the road and 4-3 within the conference. Pittsburgh is 4-2 at home (including a game in Dublin) and 5-2 in AFC contests.
• The Bills have lost four of their last seven games. Pittsburgh has lost four of their last six. Both teams are coming off a loss.
• Josh Allen has a career winning percentage of .743 coming off a loss and is one of only three quarterbacks along with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson with a winning percentage of .700 or better following a loss.
• Mike Tomlin has a career winning percentage of .626 following a loss, best in the NFL since 2007.
• The Bills are averaging 23.2 points on the road compared to 32.5 points at home. The Bills have been held to under 20 points three times this season compared to just two in 2024 and all three of those games have been on the road.
• Buffalo's point differential is +59. But over just the past three weeks, they are at -9. The Steelers now sit at +11.
• The Bills have a turnover differential of -2. Last year, Buffalo and Pittsburgh were first and third respectively in turnover differential. The Bills lost the turnover battle three to zero last week. The Steelers turnover differential is +8 and their 20 takeaways is only behind Chicago. Pittsburgh leads the NFL with 11 fumble recoveries.
• The Steelers have a league-high 84 points off takeaways.
• Buffalo has an average time of possession of 32:22, which is exactly how long they held the ball last week. The Steelers possessed the ball for 33:09 in Chicago. For the season, Pittsburgh sits at 27:51.
• The Bills have a -2-sack differential compared to +13 for Pittsburgh.
• The Steelers opponents have produced 48 more first downs, 700 more passing yards, have run 122 more plays, and average 79.1 total yards per game than Pittsburgh.
• Buffalo has 10 more touchdowns, 34 more first downs, 731 more passing yards, and average 1.5 more yards per pass attempt than they have allowed.
• The Bills have committed 19 more penalties for 155 more yards than their opponents.
• The Steelers have been penalized 68 times. Their opponents have been penalized 67. Only eight teams take fewer penalties per game (6.2) than Pittsburgh. The Bills take 6.7 penalties per game (16^th).
• Buffalo is giving up 182.8 passing yards per game, fewest in the league. Pittsburgh is giving up 277.6, most in the league.
• The Bills are third best in yards per drive differential.
• The Bills are fifth best in three and outs per drive.
• Pittsburgh's offense has only had four passes batted against them, third best. Buffalo's offense has only had five. The Steelers defenses lead the league with 18 batted passes. Houston is second with 13.
• Steelers games average 124.5 total plays per game, 10^th most. Bills games average 120.2, sixth fewest. Pittsburgh's opponents are running 67.8 plays per game, most in the league. Buffalo's opponents are running 57.8, fifth fewest.
• Buffalo's opponents are passing the ball 51.6% of their offensive snaps, fourth fewest. Pittsburgh's opponents are at 62.5%, fourth most.
• Broderick Jones will miss this game vs. Buffalo. That is only the second game missed by a member of Pittsburgh's starting offensive line this season. The Bills have used just two unique starting offensive line units.
• The Steelers have now gone 61 straight games without scoring more than seven points in the first quarter, the longest streak of its kind.
• Since 1990, teams that begin the season 7-5 go to the playoffs 55.2% of the time compared to teams that start 6-6, which go at a 29.5% clip.
• The Steelers are one of four teams to lead in every game this season. They are 6-5 while the other three teams are 25-8 combined.

WHEN PITTSBURGH HAS THE BALL

• The Steelers average 5.2 yards per play while Buffalo allows 5.5.
• Pittsburgh uses 11 Personnel on 32.2% of their snaps, 12 Personnel 32.7%, 13 Personnel 16.8%, and use an extra offensive lineman on 14.6%. The Steelers are last in their usage of 11 Personnel, eighth in 12 Personnel, second in 13 Personnel. No offense has multiple tight ends on the field at a higher rate than the Steelers.
• Buffalo has played dime with six defensive backs on 19.5% of defensive plays, third highest.
• Pittsburgh is throwing the ball on 57.5% of their snaps, 15^th highest.
• The Bills turn a set of downs into a new set of downs or a touchdown 70% of the time. That is ahead of only eight offenses. The Bills defense allows a 70% clip. Nine defenses are better.
• The Steelers .26 three and outs per drive are better than just four offenses. Only five offenses average fewer plays per drive (5.69) than Pittsburgh.
• The Bills allow the sixth fewest plays per drive (5.70).
• The Steelers offense has a 4.6% explosive play rate. The Bills defense has a 6.4% explosive play rate allowed eighth best.
• Rodgers' 19 touchdowns are fifth most in the NFL despite him only appearing in 10 games but has failed to throw multiple touchdown passes in three straight games after doing it five times in his first seven games.
• Buffalo has held quarterbacks to 175 or fewer passing yards in four of their last five games.
• The Steelers didn't have a pass catcher with more than 36 yards in Chicago.
• Pittsburgh's wide receivers are producing just 98.4 receiving yards per game.
• DK Metcalf has failed to reach 55 receiving yards in six straight games. He is getting 6.3 targets per game with a 20.4% target share. Metcalf does have at least seven targets in three straight games.
• The Bills allow 9.6 yards per target to receivers aligned on the outside, fifth highest.
• Pat Freiermuth has three or more catches in five of his past six games.
• Pittsburgh's tight ends have produced 467 yards after the catch, fourth most. The Bills have allowed the lowest amount of yardage after the catch (125) to tight ends.
• When trailing on the scoreboard, Darnell Washington has played 27.3% of snaps compared to 65.5% for Jonnu Smith and 56.4% for Freiermuth.
• The Bills allow 6.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends. Only five defenses are better.
• Kenneth Gainwell out snapped Jaylen Warren 37-36 last week. He ran 23 routes compared to 11 for Warren. Warren was not targeted against the Bears. Gainwell is fourth in targets per route run (25%) amongst running backs with at least 175 routes run behind only Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, and DeVon Achane. Gainwell has out-targeted Warren in each of the last four games. Over that stretch, Gainwell has a target share of 17.2% compared to 4.7% for Warren. Over his past two games, Gainwell has 227 yards from scrimmage. Warren has played 10 third down snaps over the past four weeks compared to 40 for Gainwell.
• The Bills allow 4.4 yards per target, best in the league, and the third fewest receiving yards per game (23.1) to opposing running backs.
• Buffalo has only allowed 12 passing touchdowns. Only five defenses have given up less.
• Joey Bosa leads the Bills with four sacks, followed by Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, and DaQuan Jones with three apiece. However, Oliver has only appeared in three games this year and Jones has only played in eight of a possible 11. The Bills average 2.4 sacks per game, but just .3 over their past three games. Steelers quarterbacks are sacked 1.9 times per game. Only eight offenses are better.
• Buffalo blitzes on 19.2% of dropbacks, the sixth lowest percentage. Only the 49ers are being blitzed less than Pittsburgh (21.3%).
• The Steelers utilize play action at a 13.3% rate, only higher than seven offenses.
• Pittsburgh is averaging 97.1 rushing yards per game. Only five offenses average less. Pittsburgh ran for 186 yards in Chicago and had a season-high 36 carries. It was the first time the Steelers had 30+ rushing attempts this season.
• Pittsburgh's 2.6% explosive run rate is only better than the Raiders and Saints. The Bills allow a 7.1% explosive run rate.
• The Bills allow 2.67 yards after contact per rush attempt, better than only the Giants. They are also fifth-worst allowing 2.16 yards before first contact.
• Buffalo gives up 5.32 yards per carry. Only the Giants are worse.
• No team has allowed more rushing touchdowns (17) than Buffalo.
• Warren (604) and Gainwell (336) are responsible for 88% of the Steelers rushing yards. They are one of three running back pairings with 500+ scrimmage yards and four or more touchdowns each.
• Warren has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 51.8% of his carries, third highest amongst running backs with at least 75 carries. However, Warren had gained positive yardage on 72.6% of such carries, fifth-best.
• When the Bills hit a running back at or behind the line of scrimmage, they allow 1.8 yards per carry compared to when they fail to do so, they allow 8.7. That is the second-highest delta in the league.
• Against running plays out of 12 and 13 Personnel, Buffalo allows a league-high 6.7 yards per carry.
• The Bills held Houston to two of 12 on third downs last week while Pittsburgh was eight of 14 in Week 12. But the Steelers only converted one of three fourth down chances.
• Pittsburgh's red zone offense (66.7%) is only behind the Eagles, Commanders, and Colts.
• Only the Rams begin their offensive drives with better average starting field position than Pittsburgh.
• The Steelers run 56.7 plays per game, only higher than Miami and Minnesota.

WHEN BUFFALO HAS THE BALL

• The Bills average 6.1 yards per play, only behind Indianapolis and Seattle. The Steelers allow 5.4 yards per play, but only 4.9 over their past three games.
• Buffalo's 28.3 points per game is fifth best.
• The Bills use 11 Personnel on 62.4% of their snaps, 12 Personnel 6.4%, 21 Personnel 7.6%, 13 Personnel 5.5%, and 22 Personnel 15.5% of their snaps. They are 13^th in 11 Personnel usage, 31^st in 12 Personnel, 13^th in 13 Personnel. Buffalo uses 22 Personnel more than any offenses in the league. Only five offenses have multiple running backs on the field together at a higher rate than Buffalo.
• Buffalo is throwing the ball on 52.6% of their plays, 26^th highest. But over their past three games, they are at 62.5%.
• The Bills turn a set of downs into a new set of downs or a touchdown 77% of the time. Only the Chiefs, Colts, and Rams are higher. The Steelers defense is at 73%, better than seven defenses.
• On a per drive basis, Buffalo is third in yards (38.4), second in points (2.86), second in touchdowns (.36), and fifth best in punts (.30).
• Pittsburgh's defense gives up the sixth most yards per drive (35.8), the fewest three and outs per drive (.15), and only the Packers allow more plays per drive than the Steelers (6.82).
• Buffalo's offense has a league best 8.2% explosive play rate. The Steelers have a 5.1% explosive play rate allowed, only better than eight defenses.
• The Bills 8.3 yards per pass attempt is third highest in the league.
• Allen has produced just seven touchdowns on the road this season compared to 21 at home. He needs one rushing touchdown to pass Cam Newton for the most ever by a quarterback. Allen has accounted for multiple touchdowns in nine of his 11 games.
• Five of Allen's nine interceptions have come over his past three games, and he has thrown two in each of his past two games. He has two giveaways in five of his last seven games. Allen has 10 giveaways since Week 5, tied for second most.
• The Bills have 10 skill position players with 100+ receiving yards, most in the league.
• Buffalo has sent five skill players into a route together on 74.7% of called pass plays, highest in the league. They were at 84.4% last week.
• Khalil Shakir leads the Bills with 564 receiving yards, but Buffalo has 10 pass catchers with at least 112 receiving yards. None of Buffalo's pass catchers have more than four receiving touchdowns, but they have 10 players with at least one receiving touchdown.
• Shakir had a 31% target share on Thursday night. That was the fourth time in his last seven games that he has hit 30%. He produced a season-high eight catches for 110 yards. Shakir has produced four or more catches and 43+ yards in eight of his 11 games.
• Keon Coleman has been a healthy scratch for the past two weeks.
• Pittsburgh allows the fourth most yardage per game (85.6) to receivers aligned in the slot.
• Dalton Kincaid hasn't played since Week 10 in Miami but has gone over 100 receiving yards in two of his last four games. Kincaid leads the Bills averaging 56.0 receiving yards per game. Kincaid leads all tight ends with 20+ receptions in yards per reception (15.4) and yards per target (12.4). He has seen a career-high 52.7% of his targets of 10+ yards downfield. In eight games with Kincaid, Allen has a 72% completion percentage and a 13/3 touchdown to interception ratio. In the three games without Kincaid, Allen is completing 64% of his passes with a 5/6 ratio. With Kincaid out of the lineup the past two weeks, Buffalo has not had a tight catch a pass on third or fourth down.
• The Steelers allow the seventh most receiving yards (66.1) and sixth most receptions (6.3) per game to tight ends.
• The Steelers allow the seventh least receiving yards (27.1) per game to running backs.
• Since acquiring Kyle Dugger and moving Jalen Ramsey to safety full time, Pittsburgh has played single-high on 53.4% of dropbacks compared to 66.6% (second highest) during the first eight weeks of the season.
• Allen has been sacked 28 times this season already, double his total from last year. He has been sacked on 15.5% of his third down dropbacks compared to just 4.3% last season.
• A dozen different Steelers defenders have at least one sack this season. Pittsburgh averages 3.1 sacks per game, behind only four defenses. The Bills are allowing 2.5 sacks per game. Allen was sacked eight times by Houston in Week 12. The Steelers 34 sacks are the fifth most and their 78 quarterback hits are second.
• Pittsburgh blitzes on 31.4% of dropbacks, the fifth highest percentage.
• TJ Watt has been chip blocked on 118 pass rushes, 37 more times than the next closest player (Aiden Hutchinson). In every season since 2020, Watt has chipped at the highest rate in the league among players with at least 200 pass rushes. The Bills have chipped pass rushers at the league's lowest rate (15.9%).
• Pittsburgh's opponents attempt a deep pass at the lowest rate in the league (6.9%). Only the Chargers (2.44) are facing a quicker time to throw than Pittsburgh (2.45).
• Allen's 2.93 seconds average time to throw is his highest since 2020.
• The Bills lead the league averaging 147.2 rushing yards per game and are third in yards per carry (4.98).
• Pittsburgh allows a 6.1% explosive run rate, better than only six defenses.
• The Bills 20 rushing touchdowns only trails Indianapolis. Pittsburgh has only given up eight rushing touchdowns. Only five defenses have allowed fewer.
• James Cook has 1,084 rushing yards. No other Bills skill player has more than 90 yards on the ground. Cook averaged 6.8 yards per carry last week despite only playing 55% of the snaps. Cook has 100 yards rushing in six different games this season, but also has three games with under 50 yards on the ground. The Bills are 5-1 in games in which Cook hits 100+ yards rushing. He is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Only Christian McCaffrey (217) and Jonathan Taylor (205) have more rush attempts than Cook (199) and only four qualified running backs average more yards per carry (5.4). Taylor (108.8) is the only player averaging more rushing yards per game than Cook (98.5). Cook has produced 100+ scrimmage yards eight times this year. Cook has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 34.2% of his attempts, second lowest among running backs with at least 75 carries.
• Allen is Buffalo's leading rusher, averaging 33.7 yards per game. Allen and Cook have combined for 18 rushing touchdowns.
• The Bills quarterbacks are scrambling on 9% of their dropbacks. Only four offenses have a higher scramble rate.
• Buffalo was five of 16 on third downs last week, but they are at 42.3% for the season, which is fourth best. The Steelers are allowing a 42.7% conversion rate, ahead of just five defenses.
• The Bills red zone offense (63.2%) is eighth best.

SPECIAL TEAMS

• Chase McLaughlin (8 for 8) and Will Reichard (8 for 10) are the only kickers with more successful kicks this season than Chris Boswell (7 of 8) from 50+ yards.
• Only 5% of Pittsburgh's kickoffs have gone for touchbacks this year.
• Mitch Wishnowsky has a net punting average of 43.9 yards, fifth best in the league. He has yet to have a touchback.
• Twelve of Corliss Waitman's punts have resulted in fair catches. Only seven punters have more.
• Kene Nwangwu (35.3) is the only qualified kickoff returner that has a higher average than Ray Davis (34.3)

MOST MEMORABLE MOMENT

January 6^th, 1995: AFC Divisional Playoff Game: Steelers 40, Bills 21, Three Rivers Stadium

The Steelers jumped all over Buffalo in this game and had a 20-0 lead midway through the second quarter at home. The Steelers defense held Jim Kelly to just 135 passing yards on 29 attempts and Thurman Thomas bottled up with just 46 rushing yards. Kelly was intercepted three times in this game. Pittsburgh was the fresher team after having a bye in the Wild Card round while the Bills hosted and defeated their divisional rival, Miami. The Steelers won another home game, this time against Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game, before advancing to Super Bowl XXX, a game in which they lost by 10 points to the Cowboys. The Bills had a 10-game postseason winning streak before falling to Pittsburgh in this game.

KEY MATCHUPS

Steelers Offensive Tackles vs. Bills DEs Joey Bosa and Gregory Rousseau - Broderick Jones is out for this game. Buffalo will rotate their edge pass-rushers, but Bosa and Rousseau are the Bills best pass-rushers. With Jones sidelined, Troy Fautanu probably will receive little help with his responsibilities.

Steelers Linebackers vs. Bills RB James Cook - Very few running backs in the NFL this season are having as strong of a season as Cook. Cook is dynamic in the run and pass game and puts a great deal of stress on every defense he faces. It will be a group effort on defense to slow Cook down, but the brunt of it likely falls on Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson's shoulders.