Matt's Stats: Week 12 vs. Bears

SERIES HISTORY

Two storied franchises, the Bears and Steelers first started playing in 1934. Chicago beat the Pittsburgh Pirates, yes, the Pirates, the first six times these franchises met. Then the Pirates became the Steelers and Pittsburgh lost the next four meetings. That made the Bears 10-0 against Pittsburgh before 1950. Since then, Chicago and the Steelers have only played 18 times and the Bears have gotten the better of Pittsburgh during that stretch as well. Chicago leads this series 19-8-1 but the Steelers won the most recent meeting in 2021.

MATCHUP OVERVIEW

• The Bears have a three-game home winning streak currently and are 3-1 at home this season. Pittsburgh is 2-2 in road games. Chicago has won seven of their last eight games. This is a matchup between two first place teams.
• The Bears have now won five games this season in which they came back in the final two minutes of play-tied for most such wins in a season by any team since at least 1983.
• Chicago is 5-3 when trailing in the second half, only behind the Broncos (6-1).
• Pittsburgh has a +14-point differential compared to -6 for the Bears. The Bears have a +23-point differential (fourth best) in the first quarter of games, but a negative differential in the other three quarters.
• Chicago has the NFL's best turnover differential at +16. The Rams are second at +10. Pittsburgh is at +8, only three teams are better. The Bears lead the league with 22 takeaways, Pittsburgh is tied for second with 18. The Steelers lead the league in recovered fumbles with nine, but Chicago has seven-only three teams are better. JJ McCarthy threw two interceptions last week vs. Chicago. The Bears now have 15 interceptions, most in the league. The Bears have just six giveaways. Only Philadelphia is better. Pittsburgh and Chicago have both just lost two fumbles, tied for second best behind the Chiefs. The Steelers turnover differential in losses this season is -6 compared to +12 in their wins. Chicago has a +6 turnover differential just in the fourth quarter, best in the league.
• The Steelers have scored a league-high 77 points off turnovers.
• Pittsburgh is 5-1 when they record a takeaway this season. The Steelers has only won one game this season in which they didn't win the turnover battle. Pittsburgh is 5-0 in games this season in which they have won the turnover battle.
• The Steelers sit at 27:19 in time of possession. Pittsburgh did win the time of possession battle 30:05 to 29:55 last week. Chicago held the ball for 36:59 in Minnesota and for the season, their time of possession sits at 31:43.
• The Steelers have not run more plays than their opponent in any game this season. Chicago ran 19 more plays than the Vikings last week. For the season, the Bears are running 64.9 plays per game, only behind Jacksonville and Arizona. The Steelers run 55.5 plays per game, fewest in the league. Over their past three games, Chicago is averaging 71 offensive plays run per game. The Bears defense averages 58.7 snaps per game, eighth fewest. The Steelers defense averages 68.5 snaps per game, most in the NFL.
• The Steelers have a +14-sack differential. Chicago is at +5.
• Pittsburgh's opponents have produced 51 more first downs, 630 more passing yards, and 88.9 more yards per game than the Steelers.
• The Bears opponents have scored five more touchdowns and seven more passing touchdowns the Chicago this year.
• The Bears and Steelers defense rank 25^th and 26^th respectively in explosive play rate allowed.
• Pittsburgh's average starting drive starts on their 33.3-yard line. That is the league's best starting field position. Chicago is second, starting at their 32.5-yard line.
• The Steelers defense gives up 35.8 yards per drive. Chicago's gives up 35.5. That is sixth and seventh most respectively.
• Chicago's average margin of victory is 6.0 points, only three teams are lower. Only Denver and Philadelphia have more one score wins than the Bears.
• The Bears have committed 80 penalties. Only three teams have committed more.
• Chicago and Pittsburgh are the only two teams that have six different players with 200+ receiving yards.
• Since 1990, teams that start the season 7-4 go to the playoffs 72.3% of the time compared to teams that start 6-5 go 43.5%.
• Aaron Rodgers has a career record against Chicago of 25-4. He's thrown 64 touchdown passes vs. the Bears.

WHEN PITTSBURGH HAS THE BALL

• The Steelers average 5.2 yards per play and 4.6 over their last three games. Chicago gives up 6.2 yards per play, better than only Cincinnati and Washington.
• The Bears 26.4 points allowed per game is 26^th in the league.
• Pittsburgh produces 27.7 yards per drive, sixth fewest. The Steelers go three and out at the third highest percentage in the league. Pittsburgh runs 5.46 plays per drive. Only Seattle runs fewer. They also eat up 155.6 seconds of clock time per drive, the third lowest.
• The Bears defense gives up .29 touchdowns per drive, better than only four teams. In terms of forcing the opponent to punt per drive, Chicago is worst in the league.
• The Steelers are throwing the ball on 58.7% of their snaps, 12^th highest.
• Pittsburgh employs 11 Personnel at just a 33.2% clip, lowest in the league. They are in 12 Personnel for 33.3% of their offensive snaps and 13 Personnel for 16.8%. They've had an extra offensive lineman on the field 12.8% of the time. That is the seventh highest percentage of 12 Personnel and the second highest percentage of 13 Personnel. Pittsburgh has multiple tight ends on the field for 56.4% of their plays, highest in the league.
• The Bears have five or more defensive backs on the field for 80% of their snaps this year. Only the Seahawks, Ravens, and Colts are higher.
• The Steelers turn a set of downs into a new set of downs or a touchdown at a 69% rate. Only seven offenses are worse. Chicago's defense is at 73%. Only six defenses are worse.
• Only the Rams (27) and Lions (22) have thrown more touchdown passes than Pittsburgh (20) this season.
• Pittsburgh had 225 yards after the catch last week. A total of 71.4% of the Steelers receiving yards have come after the catch, a higher mark than any team since at least 2016. They are the only team above 60%. League average is 50%.
• The Bears have allowed 41.7% of their passing yardage after the catch. Only three defenses are lower.
• Pittsburgh's average depth of target (6.0) is the lowest in the league. The Raiders and Browns are next lowest at 6.6. The Bears are facing the sixth highest (8.6) average depth of target.
• The Steelers are averaging -3.4 air yards to the sticks, lowest in the league.
• The Steelers time to throw (2.43) is the third quickest. Chicago's defense faces a time to throw of 2.69 seconds. Only four defenses face a higher time to throw than the Bears.
• Only the Commanders (8.87) and Cowboys (8.21) allow more yards per reception than Chicago (7.84) and only three defenses have given up more touchdown passes (21). .
• Against Cincinnati, Mason Rudolph became just the third quarterback (minimum 10 attempts) this season to complete every one of his passes under 10 air yards, going 11 for 11 for 110 yards and a touchdown on such throws.
• Rodgers has thrown 30.8% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, the second highest rate in the league. A league low 45.3% of his passes have been five or more yards downfield, a league low. League average is 55.1%. Rodgers also has attempted 23.9% of his passes 10+ yards downfield, also the lowest rate. League average is 32.7%.
• Chicago has allowed a 56.9% completion percentage (30^th), a league high 13.0 yards per attempt, and a 9.2% touchdown rate (29^th) on throws 10+ yards downfield.
• DK Metcalf has a target share of 25% and 28% over his past two games. Metcalf has failed to score a touchdown or eclipse 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 6. He is averaging 6.2 target per game and hasn't seen double digit targets since joining the Steelers.
• Over the first 10 weeks, Calvin Austin played 93% of the snaps in three receiver sets and 80.2% in two receiver sets. Roman Wilson has played at least 70% of the snaps in three receiver sets in each of the past three weeks. In Week 11, Wilson played 53% of the snaps in two receiver sets, compared to 20% by Austin. In three receiver sets against Cincinnati, Wilson played 100% of the snaps and Austin played 76.5%. After missing three games due to injury, Scotty Miller played just two offensive snaps.
• Austin has been held to under 35 receiving yards now in six of his last seven games.
• Chicago gives up 9.2 yards per target to the wide receiver position, only better than the Cowboys and Commanders.
• The Steelers tight ends have combined for 69 receptions, 669 yards, and seven touchdowns. Pittsburgh's tight ends account for 33.1% of the team's targets, second highest in the NFL.
• Darnell Washington caught four passes last week for a career-high 67 yards. He played 90% of the 11 Personnel snaps on early downs, 85.7% on third downs, but only 36% in two tight end sets. Washington has played 66% or more of the snaps four times, all Steelers wins. Washington has hit five or more targets in four of his last six games. Washington also now ranks 10^th out of 42 tight ends with at least 20 targets in yards per route run. Washington owns three of the four highest yardage totals this year for Steelers tight ends.
• Pat Freiermuth has gotten to five targets just once this season.
• Tight ends have 30.6% of the targets against the Bears, the second highest rate in the league.
• Kenneth Gainwell caught seven passes for 81 yards and two touchdowns last week and led the Steelers in all three categories. He had a 27.6% target share against the Bengals, the second time this season he has reached 27% and the third time he has been above 20%. Gainwell is only behind Christian McCaffrey and Devon Achane in targets per route run (24%).
• Jaylen Warren has had more than two receptions in just one of his past six games.
• Rodgers has targeted running backs on 23.7% of his attempts, fourth highest. Pittsburgh's running backs have generated 533 yards after the catch, second most.
• The Steelers quarterbacks were only sacked once against Cincinnati. Chicago didn't record a sack last week. The Bears only have two players, Gervin Dexter (4) and Montez Sweat (5.5), with more than three sacks.
• The Steelers are being blitzed on 21.3% of their dropbacks, second lowest.
• Chicago has three players, Kevin Byard (5), Nahshon Wright (4), and Tremaine Edmunds (4), with at least four interceptions.
• Warren only played three snaps in the second half last week but did average 6.2 yards per carry on the day. Before leaving the game, Warren only played on 45% of the snaps and received just 59% of the backfield touches. In Warren's previous four games before playing Cincinnati, he got 81% of backfield carries and a 9% target share. Warren has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 50.4% of his carries, the third highest rate among the 41 running backs with at least 75 carries. As a result, 90.0% of Warren's rushing yards have come after contact, fifth most.
• The Steelers generate 88.2 rushing yards per game, fourth lowest. They produce just 3.85 yards per rush attempt, fifth lowest. Pittsburgh's 2.6% explosive run rate is worst in the league.
• Chicago allows 5.19 yards per carry, fourth highest. They allow an explosive run rate of 6.6%, fifth highest. They get a run stop at or behind the line of scrimmage at the NFL's fifth lowest rate (15.0%).
• Pittsburgh's 2.3 yards after contact per rush attempt is seventh highest, but their 1.44 yards before contact per rush attempt is sixth lowest.
• The Bears allow 2.65 yards before contact per rush attempt, highest in the league.
• The Bears allow an explosive play on 8.0% of their plays, the highest in the league.
• All five members of Pittsburgh's starting offensive line have been on the field together for 81.4% of the Steelers snaps this year, the fifth highest rate among NFL offensive lines.

WHEN CHICAGO HAS THE BALL

• The Bears average 5.8 yards per play. Pittsburgh allows 5.4 yards per play, but 4.8 over their past three games.
• The Steelers defense forces the sixth fewest three and outs per drive. Pittsburgh's opponents average 6.79 plays per drive, highest in the league.
• Chicago is throwing the ball on 53.5% of their snaps. Only seven offenses throw at a lower rate. They only throw it 51% of the time at home. Pittsburgh's opponents throw on the Steelers at a 62.8% clip, the third highest percentage in the NFL.
• The Bears employ 11 Personnel at a 55.8% rate and 12 Personnel 30.8% of the time. That is the ninth highest usage of 12 Personnel. Chicago has multiple tight ends on the field for 39.9% of their plays, seventh highest. The Bears have had multiple running backs on the field together for just .2% of their snaps. Only the Rams are lower.
• The Steelers have employed six or more defensive backs on the field for just 1.9% of their snaps, eighth lowest.
• The Bears turn a set of downs into a new set of downs or a touchdown at a 72% rate, just about league average of 71%. Pittsburgh's defense is at 73%. Only six defenses are worse.
• Chicago is sixth in explosive play rate (12.0%). The Steelers defense is 26^th (12.3%).
• As a team, the Bears have a 59.8% completion percentage. Only three offenses are lower. Their average depth of target (8.8) is the sixth highest. Chicago's time to throw (3.13) is the highest in the league by a wide margin. Philadelphia is next at 2.86.
• Caleb Williams has been under 60% completion rate in six of his 10 games this season and is coming off a game with his lowest completion rate of the season. His 59.7% completion percentage is 31^st out of 34 qualified quarterbacks.
• Against the Cowboys and Bengals, the NFL's bottom two scoring defenses, Williams averaged 289.0 passing yards, 9.3 passing yards per attempt with a 7-0 touchdown to interception ratio. Against all other opponents this year, Williams averages 218.9 passing yards, 6.7 yards per attempt with a 6-4 ratio.
• The Steelers defense faces an average time to throw of just 2.45 seconds. Only the Chargers defense is lower.
• Only five defenses are facing a lower average depth of target (7.3) than Pittsburgh. No defense faces a lower percentage (6.8%) of deep passes.
• Pittsburgh's defense gives up the most passing yards per game (281.5).
• Chicago didn't have a pass catcher eclipse 45 receiving yards in Week 11.
• Chicago has seven different pass catchers with at least 192 receiving yards.
• Rome Odunze has 45 or fewer receiving yards in four of his last six games. Before Chicago's bye, Odunze averaged 2.10 yards per route run. Over his past six games, that has dipped to 1.50. 25.3% of Odunze's targets have come 20+ yards downfield, the third highest rate amongst receivers with 50 or more targets and his 19 deep targets are second most in the league.
• DJ Moore has cleared 46 receiving yards in just two of his past nine games. He hasn't had more than four receptions in a game since Week 2. Moore is averaging a career-low 1.32 yards per route run and has been targeted in a career-low 15.9% of his routes. He was on the field for 83.3% of dropbacks last week though.
• Luther Burden played 100% of the snaps with three wide receivers on the field last week. Going into that game, Olamide Zaccheaus had played 82.3% of snaps in three receiver sets. Burden saw a season-high 15.6% target share on Sunday and Zaccheaus wasn't targeted for the first time all year. Burden ranks ninth out of 123 wide receivers in yards per route run (2.44).
• With Cole Kmet healthy the past two weeks, Colston Loveland has route participationsof 56% and 58%. Loveland has the third most receiving yards (251) among all tight ends since Week 8 behind Trey McBride (297) and Travis Kelce (256). Loveland has a streak of five straight games with at least three receptions.
• The Steelers give up the sixth most receiving yards (67.1) and sixth most receptions per game (6.3) to the tight end position.
• D'Andre Swift has had a sub 6.0% target share in three of his last four games and his 31% route share in Week 11 was a season low.
• Over the past two weeks, Swift has 39 touches compared to 20 for Kyle Monangai.
• Pittsburgh only had one sack against the Bengals. They blitzed a season-low 12.2% of the time. The Steelers previous low blitz rate was 23.6%. For the season, Pittsburgh has blitzed at a 32.0% rate, fourth highest. Williams has thrown eight touchdowns vs. zero interceptions when blitzed this year. The Bears are being blitzed on 33.9% of their dropbacks, fourth highest.
• The Steelers average 5.1 sacks plus takeaways per game, second in the league. Chicago is allowing a league-low 2.2 sacks plus giveaways per game.
• The Bears take a sack on 4.3% of their dropbacks, the sixth highest rate in the league.
• Only the Broncos (95) have more quarterback hits than Pittsburgh (77).
• Minnesota blitzed Williams on 66.7% of his dropbacks last week.
• The Bears use play action on 35% of their dropbacks. Only the Rams are higher.
• The Bears use the shotgun on 51.0% of their snaps. Only the Rams, Seahawks, and Lions use it less.
• The Bears generate 4.85 yards per rush attempt, sixth most.
• Pittsburgh allows an explosive run rate of 6.3%, seventh highest. The Steelers allow .95 yards before first contact on running back runs (seventh), but 3.35 after first contact (26^th).
• Chicago ran for 140 yards last week, 90 by Swift. That was Swift's first game of the season with 20+ carries and third game with 90+ rushing yards. Swift ranks sixth with 89.4 rushing yards per game since Week 6.
• Monangai ranks fifth amongst all rookies with 413 rushing yards.
• Williams has 24 or more rushing yards in four straight games, but the Steelers give up the sixth fewest rushing yards per game (12.9) to quarterbacks. Williams has scrambled on 22.3% of his dropbacks, only behind Jayden Daniels. The Steelers have allowed quarterback scrambles on just 7.7% of dropbacks, the lowest rate in the NFL.
• The Steelers red zone defense (51.4%) is sixth best in the league.
• Last week, Pittsburgh's defense employed a two-high safety look 72.5% of the time. That is their highest rate since at least 2018.
• From Weeks 1 to 8, the Steelers defense allowed 25.0 points per game, 386.0 yards per game, 273.3 passing yards per game, with 1.4 takeaways per game. Since Week 9, they allow 19.0 points per game, 326.3 yards per game, 234.7 passing yards per game, with 2.7 takeaways per game.

SPECIAL TEAMS

• Cairo Santos hit a 54-yard field goal against the Vikings, his 24^th career make from 50+ yards, pushing him past Robbie Gould for most in Bears history.
• Chris Boswell has made 50 field goals in his career from 50+ yards and 41 since 2021.

MOST MEMORABLE MOMENT

December 11, 2005: Steelers 21, Bears 9

As you can imagine with these franchises, this was a very physical game with the snow falling on a cold day at Heinz Field. Points were difficult to come by early on in a defensive struggle. Jerome Bettis scored a one-yard touchdown to give the Steelers a 14-3 lead midway through the second quarter and Pittsburgh took that lead into halftime. And it was Bettis that made the play of the day and one that is just unforgettable. Midway through the third quarter, Bettis got a Ben Roethlisberger handoff on the five-yard line. Bettis just ran over Brian Urlacher, a tremendous player, and Hall of Fame linebacker in his own right, for a memorable touchdown run that pretty much sealed the win for the home team. The Steelers ran for 190 yards that day and Bettis went over the 100-yard mark for the 62^nd time in his career with two touchdowns on a day when Roethlisberger only had to throw the ball 20 times. The Steelers were 7-5 coming into this game but didn't lose again. Pittsburgh capped off the season with a Super Bowl victory over Seattle.

KEY MATCHUPS

Steelers QB vs. Bears Secondary-No defense/secondary is better at taking the ball away than Chicago's. No matter who is quarterbacking for the Steelers in this contest, he will have to be extra cautious about putting the ball in harm's way in Chicago. This secondary is, however, quite vulnerable to passes deep downfield.

Steelers EDGE TJ Watt vs. Bears RT Darnell Wright-Wright has come on very strong in 2025. The former first round pick has elevated his game in both the run and pass game under Ben Johnson. Will Chicago leave Wright on an island against T.J. Watt in pass protection? It is possible, but that also hasn't gone well for even the elite right tackles in the NFL over the years.