Cheat Sheet: Week 4 vs. Vikings

SERIES HISTORY

The Steelers defeated Minnesota in the first ever meeting in 1962, but the Vikings won the next three matchups. Of the first 13 times these teams met between 1962 and 1995, Minnesota won eight, but the biggest game of course went in Pittsburgh's favor in Super Bowl IX. The Steelers have won four of the last six matchups, but Minnesota won the most recent game, 36-28, in 2021. That brings the overall tally to 10 wins for Minnesota and nine wins for the Steelers. It is rather surprising that in nearly 60 NFL seasons that Pittsburgh and the Vikings would have only met 17 times during the regular season. The home team has won the last four meetings in this series.

MATCHUP OVERVIEW

• Pittsburgh has been outscored by five points while the Vikings have outscored their opponents by 25 points this year after their 38-point victory over Cincinnati.
• The Steelers have started with a 2-1 record with a different starting quarterback in three straight seasons, making them the third team in the last 70 years to start 2-1 or better in three consecutive seasons with a new quarterback.
• The Steelers and Vikings are currently 2-1. Since 1990, teams that start 3-1 make the playoffs 65.5% of the time. Teams that start 2-2 go to the post season 37.3% of the time.
• Pittsburgh's opponents have racked up 417 more yards than the Steelers. Tennessee (-454) is the only team with a worse yardage differential. Minnesota sits at -10.
• Pittsburgh caused five turnovers last week (two inside their own 5-yard line) and only turned it over once while Minnesota caused five turnovers and didn't give the ball away once. The Steelers +5 turnover differential is tied with Indianapolis and Jacksonville for best in the league. Minnesota is at +2. Only the Jaguars have more than the Steelers' eight takeaways. The Vikings have seven takeaways.
• The Steelers have 27 points off turnovers. They have allowed zero points off turnovers. Their's is the number one points off turnover margin in the league. Pittsburgh has the best points off turnover margin in the league over the last five years. Over the past five years, the Steelers are a combined +36 in turnover differential, best in the league. The second-best team is +25.
• The Steelers opponents have 21 more first downs, 30 more rushing attempts, 229 more rushing yards, and average 1.5 more yards per rush than Pittsburgh.
• Last week, Rodgers passed Brett Favre for fourth all-time in passing touchdowns.
• The Vikings are Carson Wentz's sixth team in six seasons, and he made at least one start for each of those six teams.
• Last week was the fifth time in 13,558 total games played in the NFL since 2000 that a defense collected two turnovers after allowing its opponent to reach the 2-yard line.
• The Steelers only held the ball for 26:40 last week. For the season, Pittsburgh is at 26:53. Minnesota is at 27:10.
• The Vikings are running 51 plays per game, which is the fewest in the league. Pittsburgh is at 54 plays per game, more than just four teams.
• Pittsburgh's opponents are throwing the ball at a 50.8% clip. Minnesota's opponents are at 51.7%. That is third and fourth respectively.
• 2% of the drives against Minnesota have reached the red zone, the lowest rate in the league. 43.3% of the drives against Pittsburgh have reached the red zone, 28th in the league.
• The Steelers have a single high safety in the middle of the field "Middle of the field closed" at the league's highest rate (68.2%). The Vikings have the league's lowest rate (25.5%).
• Minnesota was penalized 13 times for 105 yards last week. They have been penalized eight more times than their opponents. Only two teams have more penalties than the Vikings. Pittsburgh's 14 times penalized are league best.
• Pittsburgh is 16-1 in games in which they score 20+ points since 2023 (best in the NFL), but 6-14 in games they score under 20.
• Mike Tomlin is now 106-65-2 in one-score games.
• The Vikings are 4-0 in international games, most wins without a loss amongst all NFL teams.

WHEN PITTSBURGH HAS THE BALL

• The Steelers average 4.6 yards per play, ahead of only six offenses. The Bengals could only muster 3.3 yards per play against Minnesota. The Vikings now allow 4.6 yards per play for the season which is sixth best.
• Pittsburgh's 247 yards per game is only better than Cincinnati and Tennessee. Minnesota allows 271.3 yards per game, sixth best.
• The Steelers are throwing the ball on 58.6% of their offensive snaps, 15^th
• Pittsburgh generates 25.6 yards per drive. Only the Buccaneers and Commanders are higher.
• Minnesota's .14 touchdowns allowed per drive is fourth best.
• Pittsburgh utilized 13 Personnel for 13 snaps in Week 3, 12 Personnel for 24 snaps, and 11 Personnel 17 plays. For the season, the Steelers utilize 12 Personnel on 47.5% of their snaps, 13 Personnel at 9.9% and 11 Personnel at 36.4%. That is the highest percentage of 12 Personnel and fifth highest of 13 Personnel in the league. No offense has had three wide receivers on the field a lower percentage than Pittsburgh, but no team has had multiple tight ends on the field a higher percentage.
• The Steelers turn a set of downs into a new set of downs or a touchdown 69% of their drives. Only eight offenses are worse. The Vikings defense allows a 64% clip. Only Green Bay is better.
• The Vikings allow 4.6 yards per pass attempt. Only Green Bay is better.
• The Bengals could only pass for 118 yards against Minnesota last week.
• Rodgers is averaging the fewest air yards per pass attempt (5.1 yards downfield), throwing 37.2% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the league. The only passers with a lower rate of deep throws than Rodgers (7.0%) are Bryce Young and Cam Ward.
• 42% of the Steelers team targets have gone to wide receivers, only Arizona is lower. 31% have gone to tight ends, only two offenses are higher. 27% have gone to running backs, only two offenses are higher.
• DK Metcalf has now gone 10 games with fewer than five receptions, the longest such streak of his career. He has yet to eclipse seven targets in a game this year but has a touchdown in back-to-back games. Metcalf caught his 50th career touchdown last week.
• Minnesota has yet to allow 70 receiving yards to a wide receiver this season.
• Pittsburgh's Week 3 tight end snap counts were as follows: Jonnu Smith 45, Pat Freiermuth 38, Darnell Washington 20, Connor Heyward 1. Smith was on the field for 84% of Pittsburgh's pass plays compared to 56% for Freiermuth and 16% for Washington.
• The Steelers lead the NFL with 443 yards after the catch. The Vikings have allowed 225 yards after the catch, third fewest.
• After Pittsburgh called play action on 33.3% of Rodgers' dropbacks in Week 1, that rate has dropped to 15.2% in Week 2 and 21.7% in Week 3.
• The Steelers didn't give up a sack in New England. Minnesota had four sacks in Week 3, two by Andrew Van Ginkel. The Vikings are second in the NFL pressure rate (49%).
• Since hiring Brian Flores as defensive coordinator in 2023, the Vikings have the NFL's highest blitz percentage (45.4%).
• Minnesota's defense is facing an average time to throw of 3.0 seconds. Only three defenses are facing a higher time to throw.
• Pittsburgh could only rush for 64 yards last week and the Vikings gave up just 53 rushing yards against Cincinnati.
• Jaylen Warren played a career high 79.6% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps last week. That is 10% more than his previous high. His 18 carries were three more than his previous career high and he also led the Steelers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Warren has been the Steelers leading receiver two weeks in a row. Warren received a 27.3% target share in New England, highest on the team. Warren's share of backfield carries has climbed from 58% to 70% to 82% in Week 3. Warren's 14.6% target share is eighth highest amongst NFL running backs. He has been targeted on 30.8% of his routes. The only running backs with as many routes run and a higher rate are Christian McCaffrey (31.7%) and Jahmyr Gibbs (31.1%). Warren already has eight touches inside the 10-yard line. Before this year, Warren had 14 total over his career.
• Only the Bengals (2.4) average less than the Steelers 2.8 yards per rush attempt. 25.4% of the Steelers rushing attempts have gained five or more yards, 31st in the league.
• Warren averaged 2.6 yards per rush against New England. 92% of Warren's rushing yards have come after first contact. Of all ball carriers that currently have 100+ yards, only Ashton Jeanty and Quinshon Judkins are higher.
• Isaiah Rodgers had two defensive touchdowns last week, one off an interception and the other from a fumble recovery. He also forced a fumble.
• The Steelers have scored a touchdown on seven of eight red zone opportunities this season (87.5%), second best in the league. Last year they were at just 48.2%.
• Only the Packers (1.6%) have a better explosive play rate allowed than Minnesota's defense (3.4%).

WHEN MINNESOTA HAS THE BALL

• The Vikings averaged 6.1 yards per play last week to bring them to 5.3 for the season. Pittsburgh allows 5.9 yards per play, which is only ahead of Chicago, Dallas, Tennessee, and Miami.
• The Vikings 268 yards per game is only better than four offenses. Pittsburgh's 386 yards allowed per game is only better than four defenses.
• Minnesota generates 20.8 yards per drive. Only six offenses are lower. They also average just 1.43 points per drive, ahead of only Tennessee and Las Vegas. Their .16 touchdowns per drive is only ahead of three offenses.
• The Steelers defense is giving up 36.4 yards per drive, sixth most. Their 2.67 points allowed per drive is also sixth most and their .33 touchdowns per drive is fifth most.
• Minnesota is throwing the ball on 50.3% of their offensive plays. Only four offenses throw it less.
• The Vikings utilize 11 Personnel at a 75.2% clip, second highest in the league behind Tennessee.
• The Vikings turn a set of downs into a new set of downs or a touchdown 64% of their drives. Only two offenses are worse. The Steelers defense allow a 76% clip. Only four are worse.
• Pittsburgh allows 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Only four defenses are worse.
• Since 2020, Carson Wentz is 9-5 with zero giveaways. When he turns the ball over, he is 7-17-1.
• Justin Jefferson averages 95.4 receiving yards per game over his career. Not only is that the most all time, but it is 4.8 more yards than Puka Nacua, who is second all time. They are the only two above 87.2 (Ja'Marr Chase). Jefferson has yet to run more than 30 routes this season after averaging 36.4, 40.5, 36.9, and 36.4 to start his career.
• Jordan Addison is set to return from his three-game suspension this week vs. the Steelers. After averaging 4.1 receptions for 53.6 yards per game with 10 touchdowns as a rookie, Addison averaged 4.2 receptions for 58.3 yards per game with 10 touchdowns last season. Addison finished last season (playoffs included) with eight or more targets in seven of his final nine games.
• Pittsburgh has allowed 10.1 yards per target to opposing wide receivers (26th) and have allowed a 73.7% completion rate on throws 10+ yards downfield to wide receivers (31st).
• Over the Vikings first two games, TJ Hockenson caught just four passes for 27 yards. Last week, Hockenson caught five passes for 49 yards and a touchdown. He played 85.4% of the offensive snaps in Week 3 and had a season-high 25% target share.
• The Steelers have allowed 9.2 yards per target (25th) to tight ends with a 13% touchdown rate (31st). Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper combined to catch 10 passes for 118 yards and two touchdowns last week.
• The Steelers allow 9.8 yards per target to opposing running backs. Only the Broncos and Buccaneers are worse.
• Pittsburgh had five sacks in Week 3, two by TJ Watt. Watt now has 26 career games with two or more sacks. Watt has 110 sacks in 124 games and can surpass DeMarcus Ware (110.5 sacks) for second most by a player in their first 125 games since 1982.
• Minnesota has allowed a sack on 14.5% of dropbacks this year.
• The Steelers have the NFL's third highest blitz rate (41.1%).
• Watt now has 34 career forced fumbles, five more than any other player since 2016. Herbig had his seventh career forced fumble last week.
• Jordan Mason ran for 116 of Minnesota's 169 rushing yards last week. Mason averaged 7.3 yards per carry. Mason was rested in the fourth quarter, but before that he received a 76% backfield carry share against the Bengals. Mason averages 94.3 rushing yards per game as a starter since 2024. That is fourth most amongst running backs with at least five starts.
• On running back runs, the Steelers have allowed a first down or touchdown on 26% of those attempts. That ranks 27^th.
• The Vikings were only four of 12 on third downs in Week 3.

SPECIAL TEAMS

• There wasn't a field goal attempted last week in the Steelers/Patriots game. That is the first time that has occurred during the Tomlin era.
• This was just the second game since 2021 that Pittsburgh won a game in which Chris Boswell did not make a field goal.

Most Memorable Moment: January 12th, 1975: Super Bowl IX: Steelers 16, Vikings 6

The Vikings lost Super Bowl IV to Kansas City. Several years later, Minnesota lost Super Bowl VIII to the Dolphins. Then they faced the Steelers in Pittsburgh's first Super Bowl appearance. That didn't go well for Minnesota and neither did Super Bowl XI when the Vikings fell to Oakland. During an eight-year stretch, the Vikings appeared in half of the NFL's Super Bowls. Things went similarly-but very different around this time period-for Pittsburgh. Starting with this victory over the Vikings, Pittsburgh then went on to win three more Super Bowls over a five-year period kickstarted by this game. Seven Vikings from this game went on to the Hall of Fame. 14 Steelers from Super Bowl IX did the same. Pittsburgh's defense was the story of this game and appropriately so, the Steelers Super Bowl scoring began with a safety of Fran Tarkenton. Minnesota's only points from this game came from a touchdown on a blocked punt. The Vikings were only able to muster nine first downs in this game. Franco Harris rushed for 158 yards, which was more yardage than the Vikings entire offense could generate. Harris was named Super Bowl IX's Most Valuable Player…and so it began.

KEY MATCHUPS

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Steelers Secondary-Jefferson should already be considered an all-time great player at his position. His stats this season aren't as jaw dropping as usual, but taking this player lightly would be a massive mistake. Pittsburgh could choose to defend Jefferson in a multitude of ways, but he is likely to produce almost no matter what.

Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Vikings Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores-Flores is possibly the most creative and unorthodox defensive play-caller and designer of defense in the league right now. Recently on the Steelers staff, Pittsburgh should be quite familiar with Flores, but that doesn't make him predictable in any manner. Rodgers is as wise and skilled between the ears as any quarterback in football, so he should be more difficult to fool than most of Flores' opponents.